[Kajian] FAMA Tomato Price 2026: Two Readings, Sixteen Sen Down

Welcome to the eighth case file of the [Kajian] series. The series records step sizes honestly: zero sen (kangkung), one-two sen (bayam), five sen (sawi), seven sen (terung), twin three-sen steps (bendi). This file completes the far end of that span: a row that fell SIXTEEN SEN in one step — the series’ largest so far, on only its second reading.

What is the object, and why does it qualify?

Object: the TOMATO (TANAH TINGGI) row in FAMA’s Daily Price Guide — national average RM/kg, the only tomato row in the guide. It qualifies because the row holds TWO dated readings already in our fact registry — RM8.75 on 29/9/2026 and RM8.59 on 1/10/2026 ^{[source] [source]} — and the step between them is the largest the series has recorded, making tomato the step-size test that stands alone at the end of the span.

What counts as one reading in our protocol?

The series protocol (named so others can audit it; same as the earlier files, different object):

• One reading = one value of a named commodity-class row from FAMA’s Daily Price Guide (Power BI current-market-prices), captured together with the reading date and its status as a national average.
• Object = the class row; NOT premises, NOT a state, NOT another tomato class (no other class has a row at all).
• Who observes: our observation lane; readings are quoted from the fact registry, never from memory.
• Built-in limit: the daily guide carries exactly ONE tomato row ^[source].

How does the tomato price move between two readings?

Both readings read the same row, the same class, the same unit (RM/kg, national average). A two-day gap. Matching note: the row label prints ’tomato (Tanah Tinggi)’ on the first reading and ‘TOMATO (TANAH TINGGI)’ on the second — upper/lower case differs, the class is the same; a case difference is not a class difference, and we record it here so someone else’s audit does not snag on it.

How big is a sixteen-sen move?

The arithmetic is shown: RM8.59 − RM8.75 = −RM0.16; (RM8.59 − RM8.75) ÷ RM8.75 ≈ −1.8% in two days ^{[source] [source]}. For the eye, against this series over the overlapping window: kangkung RM0.00 ^[source], sawi +RM0.05 per step ^[source], tomato −RM0.16 — those sixteen sen are LARGER than every prior step of this series combined before this file existed; size adds no predictive power, it only extends the record.

What this study does NOT prove

The series’ mandatory section — written before the conclusion:

1. Not a trend — two points do not set a direction; a ((RM8.59 − RM8.75) ÷ RM8.75 ≈ −1.8%) single step does not predict the second and does not rule out a rebound ^{[source] [source]}.
2. Not premises prices — the national average hides state and market scatter; your market’s tomatoes carry chain, shrink and margin this number says nothing about.
3. Not other classes — there is no imported/lowland tomato row to borrow ^[source].
4. Not FAMA’s buying price — the guide’s printed disclaimer: indicative wholesale/public-market prices, not prices FAMA buys or sells at ^[source].
5. Not ’the vegetable market is falling’ — over the same window sawi rose and kangkung held flat ^{[source] [source]}; one row’s large step is not a market step.

Why does one large step still not upgrade into a conclusion?

Because size is not direction. This series rejects two temptations at once: “two readings mean nothing” (wrong — two readings are a RECORD) and “a large step means direction” (wrong — a large step means a large step). Sixteen sen on 29/9-1/10 is recorded, computed, and carries the same limits as bayam’s one sen: the third reading can be any size, any direction.

What is next in this series?

Candidates after this file: the KUBIS BULAT classes (tanah tinggi, China, Indonesia — three separate rows in the daily guide), each waiting for a matching second reading. Other object proposals are welcome via WhatsApp below; series entry criteria: a named class row, two dated readings bound to the fact registry, no private business information lifted.

Neighbour pages with different questions: levels and buying channels at wholesale tomato · the neighbouring seven-sen faller at [Kajian] terung FAMA · today’s readings across vegetables at vegetable prices today Malaysia.

We are not tomato sellers and do not vouch for any wholesaler’s offer. This file records the movement of one official row — that is all.